Bitunix Blue-Chip Asset Biweekly Report: BTC On-Chain Average Cost Basis Falls to $70,000; HYPE Drops Nearly 20% in Two Weeks
Statistical Period: July 17, 2026 – July 30, 2026
Data Cutoff Date: July 30, 2026
Market Overview: Fed Holds Rates Steady, Market Awaits Future Policy Shift Signals
This week, global financial markets focused primarily on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the subsequent direction of monetary policy. The Fed announced on Wednesday that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate within the 3.5% to 3.75% range, in line with broad market expectations. This marks the fifth consecutive time the Fed has held rates steady since the 25-basis-point cut in December 2025. No updated Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot was released at this meeting, shifting market attention to the rate outlook update scheduled for September. The Committee emphasized that inflation remains above the 2% long-term target, partly due to energy price increases driven by Middle East tensions, putting some pressure on the inflation cooling process.
Under the influence of a relatively hawkish policy outlook and rising risk-off sentiment, BTC dipped approximately 1% shortly after the announcement, falling back to around $64,000. It continues to oscillate within the $60,000 to $67,000 range. As the market awaits the Fed's latest economic projections and rate path signals in September, crypto asset prices are likely to remain influenced by macro policy expectations in the near term.
Bitunix Blue-Chip Asset Bi-Weekly Report focuses on major crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, and HYPE, providing in-depth analysis of market performance, on-chain data, and capital flows to offer you a more comprehensive market observation and trend reference.
BTC Market Performance Overview
BTC has continued to consolidate within the $63,000 to $67,000 range over the past two weeks, with overall market trading activity declining. According to trading volume and derivatives data, K33 Research noted that average daily BTC spot trading volume in July was approximately $2.2 billion. CME open interest has approached multi-year lows, while perpetual contract open interest has stagnated at around 300,000 BTC, hitting a new low since 2023. The continued shrinking volumes reflect that market sentiment is currently at a recent low. As BTC has remained range-bound for an extended period, trading enthusiasm among some investors has gradually waned, and wait-and-see sentiment has notably increased. However, low trading volumes and reduced leverage levels also imply that selling pressure is gradually being absorbed. Should the macro environment or capital flows improve going forward, BTC could have significant room for a rebound, and the market may be approaching its next directional move.
Data Source: Bitunix
BTC Spot ETF Fund Flows
Looking at capital flow data over the past two weeks, BTC spot ETF flows have exhibited a high correlation with BTC price movements. Between July 16 and July 21, BTC's price rose from $64,000 to $67,000, and during the same period, BTC spot ETFs recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, indicating that traditional capital continues to increase allocation to crypto assets.
However, during the short-term pullback from July 23 to July 29, spot ETF flows visibly weakened, with net outflows recorded for four straight trading days, reflecting a more cautious stance among institutional investors during the market correction phase. BTC spot ETFs have become a crucial capital conduit connecting traditional financial markets and the crypto market. Their flows not only reflect institutional investor sentiment but may also influence BTC's short-term price performance to some extent. ETF inflow and outflow trends will remain an important indicator for observing market direction.
Data Source: Farside Investor
BTC Treasury Company Holdings Changes
Strategy is currently the world's largest BTC treasury company. Between July 20 and July 26, Strategy sold approximately $544 million worth of MSTR common stock, thereby securing additional U.S. dollar reserves. After increasing its USD reserves to $3.75 billion, Strategy's stock price saw a notable rebound, rising 7.61% on July 27. Strategy did not purchase any additional BTC over the past two weeks, and its holdings remain at 843,775 BTC, with an average cost basis of $75,476.
Data Source: Strategy
BTC On-Chain Spot Trading
The cost basis of on-chain addresses is a key metric for observing BTC's supply-demand structure and investor sentiment. As of July 29, the average cost basis of on-chain BTC addresses declined from $73,680 to $70,329. The primary reason is that BTC prices have remained below $67,000 recently, allowing new market entrants to build positions at relatively lower costs, thereby pulling down the overall on-chain cost basis. With BTC's spot price at approximately $63,900, on-chain investors are, on average, sitting on an unrealized loss of about 9.89%.
At the same time, the profit margin for long-term holders is further narrowing. According to CryptoQuant, over 16.30 million BTC have now been held for more than six months, reaching a historically elevated level. The average cost basis for these long-term holders is estimated at around $49,400, implying an unrealized profit of approximately 30% for this cohort. Compared to historical highs, profitability for long-term holders has declined significantly. For instance, around January 2025, long-term holders' net unrealized profit peaked at roughly 340%.
Data Source: CryptoQuant
Data Source: CryptoQuant
BTC On-Chain Futures Trading
Hyperliquid is currently the largest decentralized contract trading platform by market size, and its on-chain contract data offers high reference value for gauging market leverage levels and trader sentiment. As of July 30, the notional open interest for BTC long contracts on Hyperliquid stood at approximately $917 million, while short contract open interest was around $768 million. Total notional open interest has declined by over 20% compared to two weeks ago. The platform's BTC contract long-to-short ratio is roughly 54:46, with long positions slightly outweighing shorts. Meanwhile, the average leverage multiple among traders has decreased from 23.3x to 20.6x, indicating that market participants are proactively reducing leverage. The risk appetite of on-chain contract traders has diminished, with short-term trading sentiment turning cautious.
Data Source: Hyperstats
ETH Market Performance Overview
Over the past two weeks, ETH's price movement has shown a notable divergence from BTC. ETH's most recent short-term rebound peak occurred on July 27, whereas BTC's rebound peak came earlier, on July 22, suggesting some differentiation in short-term capital flows and market trading rhythms. From a technical indicator standpoint, the MACD remains an important reference tool for observing short-term trend reversals in ETH. On July 18, the daily MACD for ETH formed a "golden cross" signal when the ETH price was around $1,841. If an investor had entered at that level and exited on July 22 when the MACD produced a "death cross" signal with ETH at $1,920, they could theoretically have realized a gain of approximately 4.3%.
Data Source: Bitunix
ETH Spot ETF Fund Flows
A key driver behind ETH's rally to a short-term high on July 27 was sustained inflows into ETH spot ETFs. Over the five trading days from July 17 to July 23, ETH spot ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $200 million, reflecting growing demand from traditional financial institutions for ETH asset allocation. Buoyed by persistent institutional capital inflows, ETH prices gradually strengthened, reaching a high of around $1,980. Overall, spot ETFs have become an important capital channel influencing ETH's short-term price action, and subsequent ETF flows will remain a critical indicator for monitoring market demand and institutional sentiment.
Data Source: Farside Investor
ETH Treasury Company Holdings Changes
Bitmine is currently the world's largest ETH treasury company. Between July 20 and July 24, Bitmine purchased 9,946 ETH at an average price of approximately $1,897 per ETH, worth roughly $18.87 million in total, continuing a weekly ETH accumulation pace since the treasury strategy was launched. Currently, Bitmine holds approximately 5.7874 million ETH, with an unrealized book loss of about 42.2%.
Data Source: SEC
ETH On-Chain Spot Trading
According to CryptoQuant data, after ETH broke above $1,900, some large holding addresses have begun turning profitable. The average cost basis for different wallet sizes is as follows:
Addresses holding over 100,000 ETH: average cost basis $1,752
Addresses holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH: average cost basis $2,123
Addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH: average cost basis $2,183
From a position structure perspective, large whale addresses benefit from early accumulation advantages, resulting in an average cost basis noticeably lower than that of smaller and medium-sized addresses.
Data Source: CryptoQuant
ETH On-Chain Futures Trading
As of July 30, the notional open interest for ETH long contracts on the Hyperliquid platform was approximately $814 million, while short contract open interest was around $495 million. In contrast to BTC, where contract open interest has declined nearly 20% recently, the open interest scale in the ETH contract market has not contracted significantly, indicating that traders remain highly engaged regarding ETH's subsequent trajectory. Looking at position structure, among the top ten ETH contract-holding addresses on Hyperliquid, nine hold long contracts, reflecting a dominance of bullish forces in the current on-chain contract market. Furthermore, an increasing number of on-chain traders are building expectations for additional ETH upside, viewing ETH as offering relatively greater trading opportunities in the near term.
Data Source: Hyperstats
HYPE Market Performance Overview
HYPE failed to sustain its previous strong momentum over the past two weeks, with its price retreating from $66 to around $53 — a decline of nearly 20% — underperforming the broader market. This correction was mainly due to some investors taking profit after the price briefly exceeded $60, leading to increased near-term selling pressure. That said, some institutions remain optimistic about HYPE's long-term value. Grayscale recently suggested that HYPE may still be undervalued. Given that Hyperliquid generates real revenue and cash flow, its token value can be analyzed using traditional stock valuation methods, implying a forward P/E ratio of about 15 to 18 times. Unlike stocks, however, HYPE's valuation benchmark is not earnings per share, but rather the earning power attributed to each token.
Data Source: Bitunix
HYPE Spot ETF Fund Flows
Similar to major crypto assets like BTC and ETH, HYPE's price movement is also influenced, to some extent, by spot ETF capital flows. Over the past two weeks, HYPE spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of just $2.1 million on July 15, with net outflows observed on all other trading days. Persistent capital outflows reflect that some traditional financial institutions opted to reduce positions and take profits after HYPE's earlier rally. This also corroborates HYPE's recent pullback from highs, indicating weakening near-term capital momentum.
Data Source: Farside Investor
HYPE On-Chain Spot Trading
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is used to measure the deviation between a token's current market value and its on-chain cost basis, reflecting the market's overall profitability. Despite HYPE's price declining over 20% in the past two weeks, its MVRV ratio remains around 1.35, meaning that on-chain holders as a whole are still in profit, with current market value about 35% above the on-chain cost basis. Historically, HYPE's MVRV climbed to 1.95 on June 1 — a short-term peak indicating significantly elevated overall holder profitability — while on January 21 it dipped to 0.59, meaning the market was overall in a loss-making state.
Data Source: Dune
HYPE On-Chain Futures Trading
As of July 30, the notional open interest for HYPE long contracts on the Hyperliquid platform stood at approximately $493 million, with short contract open interest at around $313 million. The long-to-short ratio is roughly 61:39, with long positions clearly dominant. Given HYPE's higher price volatility, market participants have generally adopted more cautious leverage strategies. The average leverage multiple for HYPE contracts on the platform is approximately 7.6x, noticeably lower than the average leverage for mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, reflecting greater emphasis on risk control amid volatile conditions. Looking at large on-chain positions, the address "0x939f9" established a 5x leveraged long contract when HYPE was priced at around $64. With the recent pullback, this address is currently sitting on unrealized profits exceeding $2 million, making it a notable representative case among large long positions in the market.
Data Source: Hyperstats
Blue-Chip Asset Biweekly Summary
Against the backdrop of the Fed holding interest rates steady, the crypto market this week remains in a consolidation phase. BTC trading activity has declined somewhat, but ETF flows and on-chain data indicate sustained resilience in long-term capital. ETH, driven by institutional inflows and bullish sentiment in the contract market, has performed relatively stronger than BTC in the short term, while HYPE has entered a profit-taking phase after earlier gains. The market's future direction will continue to depend on macro policy expectations, ETF capital flows, and changes in the on-chain structure of major asset holdings. Investors should stay attentive to market directional choices.
Disclaimer
This article is not intended to provide: (i) investment advice or investment recommendations; (ii) an offer or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; or (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Digital assets (including stablecoins and NFTs) involve high risk and may be highly volatile. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. For your specific circumstances, consult your legal, tax, or investment professionals. You are responsible for understanding and complying with all applicable local laws and regulations.
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