Reporting Period: October 16 – October 30, 2026
Data as of: October 30, 2026
Market Overview: US Midterm Elections Shape Crypto Policy Outlook as BTC Falls Below $77,000
The US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, are emerging as a key factor influencing sentiment in the crypto market, particularly as investors assess the potential impact of changes in control of the House and Senate. If Republicans retain control of both chambers, markets may view this as a relatively favorable condition for maintaining the current administration's crypto policy direction and advancing regulatory legislation such as the CLARITY Act. This could reinforce expectations of a more supportive regulatory environment for the crypto industry.
However, progress on the bill has already encountered obstacles in the Senate, meaning that even a favorable election outcome for Republicans would not guarantee smooth legislative progress. According to a Reuters poll published on October 26, registered voters favored Democrats over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 47% to 36%. However, national polling does not necessarily translate into the distribution of seats in either chamber, and the Senate races involve different structural factors. The election outcome therefore remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, the crypto market faced a sudden security incident this week, further intensifying risk aversion. On October 30, Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, reportedly suffered a major security breach after abnormal outflows were detected from wallets associated with the platform. Binance subsequently suspended deposits and withdrawals and stated that it would cover all losses resulting from the incident. The full scope of the incident and the exact amount of losses remain under investigation, but the news has already weighed on market confidence. Bitcoin (BTC) subsequently fell below $77,000, reaching its lowest level since September.
The Bitunix Blue Chip Biweekly Report focuses on major crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, and HYPE, examining market performance, on-chain data, and capital flows. It also tracks how the US midterm elections may influence crypto policy expectations and overall market sentiment, providing readers with a broader perspective on market developments and emerging trends.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin Price Overview: BTC Falls Below the Key $77,000 Level
The suspected major security breach involving Binance and subsequent selling pressure significantly increased risk aversion across the crypto market this week. On October 30, abnormal transfers involving Binance-related assets were reported, with some stolen funds suspected of being moved toward the market for liquidation, adding to selling pressure. Bitcoin (BTC) subsequently fell below $77,000, increasing near-term downside risks. Before this incident, BTC had already lost the $80,000 level several times. Although it briefly recovered to around $84,000 during the period, it failed to establish a sustained upward trend. With exchange security concerns, capital outflows, and heightened risk aversion weighing on sentiment, BTC may remain under pressure in the near term. Market participants will be watching the $77,000 level and lower support zones for signs of stabilization.
Data Source: Bitunix
Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows: Institutional Flows Turn Volatile as Risk Aversion Intensifies
Bitcoin spot ETF flows remained volatile throughout mid-to-late October, highlighting divisions among institutional investors over BTC's near-term outlook. From October 20 to 22, spot ETFs recorded three consecutive days of net inflows totaling more than $1 billion, providing some support for Bitcoin's recovery. However, on October 22, daily net outflows reached as much as $635 million, indicating that institutional sentiment remained divided. From October 26 to 28, spot ETFs once again recorded three consecutive days of net inflows, but the renewed capital inflows were insufficient to reverse the broader market trend. On October 30, the suspected major security breach involving Binance further heightened market concerns, while the risk of liquidation involving assets linked to the hackers added to selling pressure. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $77,000. Overall, ETF inflows have yet to establish a consistent source of price support. Institutional capital flows and exchange security risks will remain important factors shaping BTC's near-term performance.
Data Source: Farside Investor
Bitcoin Treasury Holdings: Strive Adds 6,182 BTC While Strategy Makes No New Purchases
As of October 26, publicly listed companies worldwide, excluding mining companies, recorded approximately $510 million in net weekly BTC purchases. Neither Strategy nor Metaplanet increased their BTC holdings during the previous week. Asset management firm Strive announced on October 26 that it had purchased 6,182 BTC during the week for approximately $510 million, at an average price of $82,732 per BTC. Its total holdings consequently increased to approximately 43,000 BTC. Meanwhile, UK-based Bitcoin treasury company The Smarter Web Company announced on October 23 that it had invested $1.65 million to purchase 20 BTC at an average price of $82,286, bringing its total holdings to 2,850 BTC. French fabless semiconductor company Sequans Communications also disclosed that it held 1,018 BTC as of October 23.
Data Source: Strive
Bitcoin On-Chain Spot Activity: Average Cost Basis Rises to $74,800 as Unrealized Gains Narrow to Around 7%
As BTC fell below $77,000, new positions established at higher price levels pushed the average on-chain cost basis from approximately $70,000 to nearly $74,800. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's overall performance over the past two weeks has remained weak, reducing the unrealized gains held by on-chain investors. The average unrealized profit among the relevant addresses has now narrowed to approximately 7%. If prices remain under pressure, some holders may see their unrealized gains shrink further. Market participants should therefore monitor price reactions around the average cost basis, along with changes in on-chain capital flows.
Data Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin On-Chain Derivatives Activity: Open Interest Reaches $2.5 Billion as a Whale Builds a Short Position Worth Over $200 Million
Hyperliquid is one of the larger decentralized derivatives trading platforms, and its on-chain data provides insight into market leverage and the positioning of long and short traders. As of October 29, the total notional value of BTC perpetual futures positions on the platform had risen to approximately $2.5 billion, indicating that significant capital remained engaged in the price battle around the $80,000 level. The platform's BTC long-to-short positioning ratio stood at approximately 60:40, with longs maintaining the upper hand. However, this positioning ratio does not necessarily indicate that prices will move higher.
Compared with two weeks earlier, a large BTC derivatives position with a notional value exceeding $200 million had emerged on Hyperliquid. The address "0xb83de" opened a BTC short position using 5x leverage, with a notional value of approximately $201 million. Positions of this size can amplify market volatility. Traders will need to monitor changes in the position, potential liquidation risks, and whether the balance between long and short exposure shifts significantly.
Data Source: Hyperstats
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum Price Overview: ETH Falls to $2,200 as Rebound Momentum Remains Weak
Like BTC, ETH has faced sustained pressure over the past two weeks amid declining risk appetite and shifting capital flows, resulting in an overall downward trend with intermittent volatility. However, ETH's recovery attempts have been relatively limited. After approaching $2,500, the price turned lower again. On October 30, the suspected major security breach involving Binance further intensified risk aversion across the market. Concerns over potential selling involving assets linked to the hackers added to market pressure, accelerating ETH's decline to a low of $2,200. The move highlights the significant short-term selling pressure facing major crypto assets.
Data Source: Bitunix
Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: Persistent Outflows Put Market Demand to the Test
Continued institutional outflows from ETH spot ETFs have coincided with Ethereum's relatively weak price performance. From October 19 to 21, BTC spot ETFs recorded three consecutive days of net inflows totaling more than $1 billion. Over the same period, however, ETH spot ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding $100 million, highlighting a clear divergence in capital flows between the two assets. Although daily outflows from ETH spot ETFs during October were relatively limited, persistent net withdrawals could weaken market demand and restrict the scope for a price recovery. Going forward, investors should monitor whether ETF flows return to positive territory and whether ETH begins to outperform BTC, as both could provide insight into changes in institutional sentiment.
Data Source: Farside Investor
Ethereum Treasury Holdings: Bitmine Adds 10,452 ETH, Bringing Total Holdings to 6.05 Million ETH
On October 26, Bitmine (BMNR) announced that it had added 10,452 ETH over the previous week, bringing its total holdings to approximately 6.05 million ETH, equivalent to 4.95% of Ethereum's total supply. The company's combined holdings of crypto assets, cash, and marketable securities were valued at approximately $15 billion. Of its ETH holdings, around 5.23 million ETH had been staked, generating an estimated annual staking income of approximately $318 million. In addition, Bitmine has repurchased approximately 22.9 million shares of its common stock since the beginning of the year, spending around $399.6 million. Its continued accumulation and staking of ETH indicate that Ethereum remains central to the company's treasury strategy.
Data Source: SEC
Ethereum Market Analysis: ETH Loses Approximately $54 Billion in Market Value Over Three Weeks as Derivatives Open Interest Contracts
On October 25, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported that the broader altcoin market had weakened over the previous three weeks. During this period, ETH declined by approximately 15%, wiping out around $54 billion in market capitalization and reflecting a deterioration in overall risk appetite. In the derivatives market, ETH open interest on Binance fell by approximately $1.3 billion over the past month, a decline of nearly 20%, bringing the total down to around $5.7 billion. Total ETH open interest across all exchanges also decreased to approximately $11.5 billion.
Data Source: X
Ethereum On-Chain Derivatives Activity: Three Addresses Hold ETH Positions Worth Over $100 Million Each, With Longs Still in Control
As of October 29, the notional value of ETH long positions on Hyperliquid stood at approximately $1.14 billion, compared with $678 million in short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of roughly 63:37. Although longs continued to dominate, their relative advantage had narrowed compared with previous levels, indicating that market participants remained divided over ETH's outlook. In addition, three addresses on Hyperliquid held ETH derivatives positions with notional values exceeding $100 million each, highlighting the continued participation of large traders in the ETH derivatives market.
Data Source: Hyperstats
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
HYPE Price Overview: ICE Partners With Trade.xyz, Sending HYPE Above $90
While the broader crypto market remained under pressure toward the end of October, HYPE recorded a relatively independent rally. After declining alongside the broader market to around $75 on October 25, HYPE gradually recovered. On October 30, news that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, had partnered with Trade.xyz further boosted market sentiment, pushing HYPE above $90. The move made HYPE one of the better-performing major crypto assets of the week.
Data Source: Bitunix
HYPE Spot ETF Flows: Limited Market Size, but Recent Outflows Warrant Attention
Major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity have not yet filed for HYPE spot ETFs, limiting the overall influence of these products on HYPE's price performance. Existing HYPE ETFs have combined assets under management of approximately $122 million, but recorded cumulative net outflows of more than $20 million over the past 10 trading days. This suggests that the products have faced some selling pressure recently. However, given their relatively limited size and market coverage, these outflows alone are insufficient to establish a broader trend in HYPE capital flows.
Data Source: Farside Investors
HYPE Treasury Holdings: Hyperliquid Strategies Adds 130,000 HYPE and Expands Share Repurchase Program
On October 22, Hyperliquid Strategies announced that it had purchased 130,000 HYPE during the week, worth approximately $10.23 million. The company now holds around 38.83 million HYPE, with a total position value of approximately $3.055 billion. Over the same period, its cash holdings declined by around $10 million to approximately $245 million. On October 26, the board of Hyperliquid Strategies (Nasdaq: PURR) approved an expansion of its share repurchase program, increasing the authorized amount from $30 million to up to $100 million. Approximately $72 million remained available under the expanded program.
Data Source: Hyperliquid Strategies
HYPE Analyst Sentiment: CryptoQuant Data Shows 90% of Analyst Forecasts Are Bullish
CryptoQuant recently introduced its Analyst Consensus Index, which aggregates analyst forecasts for different crypto assets. As of October 29, HYPE had the highest proportion of bullish analyst forecasts on the platform. Data showed that approximately 90% of the 1,318 analyst predictions covering HYPE expressed a bullish outlook. Key arguments supporting the positive outlook include the protocol's fee-based buyback mechanism, growth in activity under the HIP-3 protocol, and increasing participation from the US market.
Data Source: CryptoQuant
HYPE On-Chain Derivatives Activity: Notional Open Interest Exceeds $1.2 Billion as a Whale Records $55 Million in Unrealized Gains
As of October 29, the notional value of HYPE long positions on Hyperliquid stood at approximately $684 million, compared with $525 million in short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of roughly 56:44. Longs maintained a slight advantage, although the margin had narrowed, suggesting that the balance between bullish and bearish positions was shifting. Total notional open interest had exceeded $1.2 billion, reflecting continued strong participation in HYPE derivatives trading. Meanwhile, the on-chain address "0x082e" held a HYPE derivatives position with a notional value of approximately $108 million and unrealized gains of around $55 million, making it one of the most profitable addresses on the Hyperliquid platform.
Data Source: Hyperstats
Blue Chip Biweekly Report Summary
This edition of the Bitunix Blue Chip Biweekly Report highlights continued weakness across the broader crypto market. Bitcoin repeatedly fell below the $80,000 level, while Ethereum dropped to $2,200. Persistent outflows from spot ETFs also reflected growing caution among institutional investors. Corporate treasury strategies showed divergent trends, with Strive increasing its BTC holdings and Bitmine continuing to accumulate ETH. Meanwhile, some large traders opened substantial short positions in the derivatives market, highlighting the ongoing battle between bullish and bearish participants.
In contrast, HYPE demonstrated relative resilience around $75 before rallying above $90 following the reported partnership between ICE and Trade.xyz. However, outflows from HYPE-related ETFs and changes in derivatives positioning remain worth monitoring. Going forward, investors should pay close attention to capital flows, whale positioning, and key price levels across major crypto assets to better assess potential market trends.
