November 10, 2026 — The October U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due at 9:30 p.m. Taiwan time, but an unusual data limitation will make this release more difficult to interpret. Because the 2025 government shutdown left the October comparison baseline unavailable, the report will exclude year-over-year readings for both headline and core CPI, leaving investors with month-over-month figures only. As the final CPI release before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, the report could significantly influence rate-hike expectations. Rather than relying solely on the headline inflation rate, markets will need to examine housing, services, transportation, and energy-related price pressures for a clearer picture of the inflation outlook.
Missing Year-Over-Year CPI Data Makes October Inflation Components More Important
The United States will release its October CPI report on November 10. However, because the 2025 government shutdown left the October 2025 baseline data unavailable, the report will not include year-over-year inflation rates for either headline or core CPI. Investors will have to rely on month-over-month figures to assess price trends.
Market expectations point to a moderation in monthly inflation:
Without annual comparisons, a single monthly reading will provide a less complete picture of whether inflation is returning to a sustained downward trend.
This makes individual CPI components particularly important. Investors will be watching changes in housing, transportation, used vehicles, consumer electronics, and services prices to determine whether price pressures are broadening or easing.
As the final CPI report before the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting, any significant deviation from expectations could directly reshape market pricing for another rate increase.
Energy Price Pass-Through Raises the Risk of Persistent Core Inflation
One of the key questions for policymakers is whether higher energy costs will continue to feed into core inflation.
Recent Federal Reserve research indicates that the persistence coefficient for core inflation has increased from approximately 0.35 to 0.65 since the pandemic. The pass-through effect from oil prices to core inflation has also strengthened significantly.
Under the updated model, if oil prices rise by 10% and these dynamics persist, the overall core price level could be approximately 0.35% higher cumulatively after three years.
This estimate does not mean inflation will inevitably spiral out of control, nor does the research establish that second-round inflation effects have fully taken hold. However, it highlights the potential for energy price shocks to have a more lasting impact on the broader price level than in the past.
Recent corporate discussions have also included more frequent references to inflation and cost pass-through. This suggests that businesses may be facing renewed pressure from energy, logistics, and raw material expenses.
If companies increasingly transfer these costs to consumers, inflation could remain sticky even if headline energy prices stabilize. This would complicate the Fed's efforts to bring inflation under control without imposing further pressure on economic activity.
Fed Rate Outlook: Firm Policy Direction but a Cautious Pace
The current monetary policy outlook can be described as a firm direction with a cautious pace. Fed official Thomas Barkin believes that demand and inflation remain resilient, but he has also highlighted potential downside risks to economic activity.
In particular, weaker-than-expected AI investment or faster-than-anticipated labor displacement through technological substitution could undermine corporate investment and household consumption.
These risks create a more complicated policy environment. Persistent inflation may support further tightening, while weakening investment and consumption could argue for a more cautious approach.
Markets currently assign approximately a 78% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. The October CPI report could either reinforce this expectation or prompt investors to reassess it, depending on the underlying price components.
Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to fluctuate within a range of 4.75%–5%. Although lower oil prices and safe-haven demand have eased some pressure in the bond market, a definitive end to interest rate pressures has yet to be established.
What October CPI Could Mean for Bitcoin and Crypto Market Liquidity
For cryptocurrency markets, the October CPI report could influence risk appetite through its impact on Federal Reserve expectations, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury yields.
A slowdown in core CPI could temporarily improve investor sentiment and support demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, a softer headline reading alone may not be sufficient to sustain a broader recovery if services inflation and energy cost pass-through remain elevated.
If underlying inflation proves persistent, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could remain strong, limiting the improvement in financial conditions and constraining liquidity across crypto markets.
Investors should focus on three areas when evaluating the report:
1. Core CPI components: Whether housing and services prices show meaningful moderation will help determine if underlying inflation is easing.
2. Energy and transportation costs: Continued cost pass-through could keep broader inflation elevated even if headline monthly CPI slows.
2. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar: Their reaction to the inflation data will provide important signals about financial conditions and potential liquidity support for Bitcoin.
Ultimately, the composition of October CPI may matter more than the headline monthly inflation rate. With year-over-year comparisons unavailable, investors will need to assess whether price pressures are genuinely broadening or easing before drawing conclusions about the Fed's next move.
